Ajdin Hrustic

30 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, RM) · Australia
Heracles Almelo · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€600k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€146k – €728k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€498k – €835k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€289k – €531k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€230k – €689k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€146k – €728k
Model value (performance-implied)€498k – €835k
Projected value (24 months)€289k – €531k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ajdin Hrustic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.41x the positional average in the league (2222 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 74

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average27.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €333k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2222 (73% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.28
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.31
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
27 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1060
Opponent strength
1303
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€289k – €531k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -33% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (MID)
Relative output kept
76%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCM27222273%160.280.31130310600.43
2023/24Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCM14117038%100.080.16135511490.48
2022/23Hellas VeronaSerie AAM62267%000.000.36146813570.94
2021/22Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaCM2395831%200.190.19155915941.05
2020/21Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaCM112669%100.340.16143916021.06
2020/21FC GroningenEredivisieRM1833%000.000.22125713250.56
2019/20FC GroningenEredivisieRM25189881%330.280.22135913450.62
2018/19FC GroningenEredivisieCM18100933%010.090.15133513560.61
2017/18FC GroningenEredivisieRM18109936%110.160.21135413460.59
2016/17FC GroningenEredivisieAM5642%101.410.42133813450.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo330031—
2025/26World CupAustralia13200—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueEintracht Frankfurt589001509
2020/21Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt12000—
2019/20Knvb BekerFC Groningen217400—
2018/19Knvb BekerFC Groningen16300—
2017/18Knvb BekerFC Groningen13110—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sotiris Tsiloulis
Super League 1 · 2024
29€450k€300kfell
Fatjon Andoni
Super League 1 · 2022
31€300k€200kfell
Danny Bejarano
Super League 1 · 2022
28€400k€350kflat
Paul McGowan
Scottish Premiership · 2019
32€400k€250kfell
Israel Coll
Super League 1 · 2021
28€300k€800krose
Christian Jakobsen
Superliga · 2024
31€350k€350kflat
Dmytro Myshnyov
Premier Liga · 2022
28€600k€500kflat
Gökcan Kaya
Super Lig · 2024
29€450k€450kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Heracles AlmeloWithout ClubUnknown€600k
28 Jul 2025SalernitanaHeracles AlmeloFree / loan€400k
30 Aug 2024Hellas VeronaSalernitanaFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2024Heracles AlmeloHellas VeronaFree / loan€600k
1 Feb 2024Hellas VeronaHeracles AlmeloFree / loan€500k
1 Sept 2022FrankfurtHellas Verona€500k€3.0M
28 Sept 2020FC GroningenFrankfurt€1.0M€650k
1 Jul 2017Groningen U21FC GroningenUnknown€300k
1 Jul 2015Gron./Cam. U19Groningen U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Sept 2014Schalke 04 U19Gron./Cam. U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Schalke 04 U17Schalke 04 U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012AKA Austria U16Schalke 04 U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Nottingham Yth.AKA Austria U16Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.