
Ajdin Hrustic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ajdin Hrustic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.41x the positional average in the league (2222 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €333k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2222 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1303
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €289k – €531k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -33% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CM | 27 | 2222 | 73% | 1 | 6 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 1303 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CM | 14 | 1170 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1355 | 1149 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | AM | 6 | 226 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1468 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 23 | 958 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 1559 | 1594 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 11 | 266 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 1439 | 1602 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | RM | 1 | 83 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1257 | 1325 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | RM | 25 | 1898 | 81% | 3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 1359 | 1345 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CM | 18 | 1009 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1335 | 1356 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | RM | 18 | 1099 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1354 | 1346 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | AM | 5 | 64 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.41 | 0.42 | 1338 | 1345 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 300 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Australia | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 31 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sotiris Tsiloulis Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Fatjon Andoni Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Danny Bejarano Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Paul McGowan Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 32 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Israel Coll Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €300k | €800k | rose |
| Christian Jakobsen Superliga · 2024 | 31 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Dmytro Myshnyov Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Gökcan Kaya Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Heracles Almelo | Without Club | Unknown | €600k |
| 28 Jul 2025 | Salernitana | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Hellas Verona | Salernitana | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Heracles Almelo | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Hellas Verona | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Frankfurt | Hellas Verona | €500k | €3.0M |
| 28 Sept 2020 | FC Groningen | Frankfurt | €1.0M | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Groningen U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Gron./Cam. U19 | Groningen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Schalke 04 U19 | Gron./Cam. U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Schalke 04 U17 | Schalke 04 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AKA Austria U16 | Schalke 04 U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Nottingham Yth. | AKA Austria U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.