Mathias Rasmussen

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also LB) · Norway
Union Saint-Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€746k – €2.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.3M – €5.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€764k – €2.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€828k – €4.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€746k – €2.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.3M – €5.0M
Projected value (24 months)€764k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mathias Rasmussen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1400 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 62

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage49.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.3M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1400 (46% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
49 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1428
Opponent strength
1358
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€764k – €2.3M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-117 Elo); league level up (+57 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -49% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1400 league minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
60 (MID)
Relative output kept
63%–142%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCM1670826%210.380.20135815700.65
2025/26FC St. PauliBundesligaCM1369223%000.000.16153112830.94
2024/25Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCM1891734%130.390.24135915450.63
2023/24Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueCM28158059%220.230.14134115890.63
2019/20FC NordsjaellandSuperligaLB17111248%320.400.23128913290.41
2018/19FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCM22106546%030.250.21130313230.44
2017/18FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCM2675532%440.950.47126213770.47
2016/17FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCM62169%000.000.23134912800.48

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise5198001688
2025/26Dfb PokalFC St. Pauli18900—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise8393001538
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingUnion Saint-Gilloise251001594
2024/25Volkswagen SupercupUnion Saint-Gilloise122001557
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise5126001513
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingUnion Saint-Gilloise291011357
2019/20Oddset PokalenFC Nordsjaelland17410—
2018/19Oddset PokalenFC Nordsjaelland19000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Nordsjaelland487101357
2017/18Oddset PokalenFC Nordsjaelland218921—
2016/17Oddset PokalenFC Nordsjaelland16300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Artur Yusupov
Premier Liga · 2018
29€1.8M€2.2Mrose
Tristan Dingomé
Ligue 1 · 2019
28€2.5M€1.3Mfell
Lukas Lerager
Serie A · 2021
28€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Milos Ninkovic
Ligue 1 · 2013
29€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Rene Krhin
Ligue 1 · 2018
28€1.5M€1.2Mfell
Marco D'Alessandro
Serie A · 2019
28€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Jonathan Delaplace
Ligue 1 · 2016
30€1.8M€500kfell
Gastón Brugman
Serie A · 2020
28€2.0M€2.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jan 2026Union SGSt. Pauli€1.0M€2.5M
1 Jul 2023SK BrannUnion SG€1.2M€1.2M
2 Oct 2020NordsjaellandSK BrannUnknown€500k
19 Jul 2016IK StartNordsjaellandUnknown€100k
1 Jan 2015IK Start IIIK StartUnknownData unavailable
19 Aug 2013Lyngdal ILIK Start IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2013Lyngdal JugendLyngdal ILUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.