
Mathias Rasmussen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathias Rasmussen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1400 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1400 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1428
- Opponent strength
- 1358
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €764k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-117 Elo); league level up (+57 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -49% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1400 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 16 | 708 | 26% | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 1358 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CM | 13 | 692 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1531 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 18 | 917 | 34% | 1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 1359 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 28 | 1580 | 59% | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 1341 | 1589 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | LB | 17 | 1112 | 48% | 3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.23 | 1289 | 1329 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 22 | 1065 | 46% | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 1303 | 1323 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 26 | 755 | 32% | 4 | 4 | 0.95 | 0.47 | 1262 | 1377 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 6 | 216 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1349 | 1280 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 393 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 1357 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 74 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1357 |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 189 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artur Yusupov Premier Liga · 2018 | 29 | €1.8M | €2.2M | rose |
| Tristan Dingomé Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Lukas Lerager Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Milos Ninkovic Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Rene Krhin Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Marco D'Alessandro Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Jonathan Delaplace Ligue 1 · 2016 | 30 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Gastón Brugman Serie A · 2020 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Union SG | St. Pauli | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | SK Brann | Union SG | €1.2M | €1.2M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Nordsjaelland | SK Brann | Unknown | €500k |
| 19 Jul 2016 | IK Start | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | IK Start II | IK Start | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 Aug 2013 | Lyngdal IL | IK Start II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Lyngdal Jugend | Lyngdal IL | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.