Adrian Beck
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrian Beck's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (860 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 46.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €909k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 860 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1442
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €587k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -61% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 860 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | AM | 24 | 860 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.39 | 1442 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 1597 | 52% | 4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 1502 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | AM | 23 | 971 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 1531 | 1424 | 1.01 |
| 2019/20 | Hamilton Academical FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 6 | 189 | 7% | 0 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1363 | 1163 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1396 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 97 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SSV Ulm 1846 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yevgen Shakhov Serie A · 2020 | 30 | €1.6M | €600k | fell |
| Fallou Diagne Ligue 1 · 2017 | 28 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Edenilson Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Marco Motta Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Liam Henderson Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Pavle Ninkov Ligue 1 · 2014 | 29 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Yacouba Sylla Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | SSV Ulm 1846 | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Union SG | SSV Ulm 1846 | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jan 2020 | Hamilton Acad. | Union SG | Free / loan | €100k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Union SG | Hamilton Acad. | Free / loan | €100k |
| 11 Jan 2019 | SSV Ulm 1846 | Union SG | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SU Neckarsulm | SSV Ulm 1846 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hoffenheim II | SU Neckarsulm | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Hoffenheim U17 | Hoffenheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.