Miroslav Bogosavac

29 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Serbia
RFK Akhmat Grozny · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 176 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€299k – €896k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€681k – €1.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€441k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€215k – €725k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€299k – €896k
Model value (performance-implied)€681k – €1.0M
Projected value (24 months)€441k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Miroslav Bogosavac's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 65

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage36th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €399k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-43% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2659 (99% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1279
Opponent strength
1344
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€441k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 70 pts; role change LM -> LB; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -38% to -9%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaLB30265998%010.030.08134412790.56
2024/25RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaLM1075828%010.120.19129312480.55
2023/24RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaLB27208877%010.040.07133712730.49
2022/23RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaLB25218781%050.210.19132013640.53
2021/22RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaLB24211578%020.090.11134813000.52
2020/21RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaLB29247992%010.040.07133313070.55
2019/20RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaLB1083631%020.220.23141513120.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny44400—
2024/25Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny316200—
2023/24Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny524701—
2022/23Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny430100—
2021/22Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny14500—
2020/21Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny327001—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Cukaricki4360021364
2019/20Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny112000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Saïd Bakari
Eredivisie · 2024
30€800k€300kfell
Renê Santos
Liga Portugal · 2020
28€550k€600kflat
Darryl Lachman
Eredivisie · 2017
28€900k€700kfell
Laurens De Bock
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
29€700k€600kflat
Sven van Beek
Eredivisie · 2022
28€800k€1.5Mrose
Freek Heerkens
Eredivisie · 2018
29€600k€475kfell
Zainadine
Liga Portugal · 2018
30€1.5M€650kfell
Buatu
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
28€850k€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jul 2020CukarickiAkhmat Grozny€500k€1.4M
2 Jul 2020Akhmat GroznyCukarickiFree / loan€1.4M
14 Feb 2020CukarickiAkhmat GroznyFree / loan€1.7M
17 Feb 2017PartizanCukarickiFree / loan€500k
31 Dec 2015TeleoptikPartizanFree / loan€100k
31 Aug 2015PartizanTeleoptikFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2015TeleoptikPartizanFree / loan€100k
15 Aug 2013PartizanTeleoptikFree / loanData unavailable
14 Aug 2013Partizan U19PartizanUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Partizan U17Partizan U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Partizan U15Partizan U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Miroslav Bogosavac · MoneyballAI