
Miroslav Bogosavac
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Miroslav Bogosavac's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €399k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2659 (99% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1344
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €441k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 70 pts; role change LM -> LB; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -38% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LB | 30 | 2659 | 98% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1344 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LM | 10 | 758 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1293 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LB | 27 | 2088 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1337 | 1273 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LB | 25 | 2187 | 81% | 0 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 1320 | 1364 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LB | 24 | 2115 | 78% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1348 | 1300 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LB | 29 | 2479 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1333 | 1307 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LB | 10 | 836 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 1415 | 1312 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 4 | 44 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 3 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 247 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 4 | 301 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Cukaricki | 4 | 360 | 0 | 2 | 1364 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saïd Bakari Eredivisie · 2024 | 30 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Renê Santos Liga Portugal · 2020 | 28 | €550k | €600k | flat |
| Darryl Lachman Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Laurens De Bock Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Sven van Beek Eredivisie · 2022 | 28 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Freek Heerkens Eredivisie · 2018 | 29 | €600k | €475k | fell |
| Zainadine Liga Portugal · 2018 | 30 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Buatu Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €850k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2020 | Cukaricki | Akhmat Grozny | €500k | €1.4M |
| 2 Jul 2020 | Akhmat Grozny | Cukaricki | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 14 Feb 2020 | Cukaricki | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 17 Feb 2017 | Partizan | Cukaricki | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Dec 2015 | Teleoptik | Partizan | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Partizan | Teleoptik | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Teleoptik | Partizan | Free / loan | €100k |
| 15 Aug 2013 | Partizan | Teleoptik | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Aug 2013 | Partizan U19 | Partizan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Partizan U17 | Partizan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Partizan U15 | Partizan U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.