Buatu

33 yrs · Centre-back · Angola
Gil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€600k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€187k – €660k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€296k – €895k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€182k – €467k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€365k – €708k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€187k – €660k
Model value (performance-implied)€296k – €895k
Projected value (24 months)€182k – €467k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Buatu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 19

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage43.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €384k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €850k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2745 (90% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
44 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1303
Opponent strength
1317
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€182k – €467k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; team strength up (+68 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -69% to -21%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Gil Vicente FCLiga PortugalCB31274590%120.100.10131713030.58
2024/25Gil Vicente FCLiga PortugalCB21182360%020.100.11134812350.51
2023/24Gil Vicente FCLiga PortugalCB545015%100.200.11131212760.58
2020/21Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueCB29242079%100.040.05135412840.55
2019/20Desportivo Aves (- 2020)Liga PortugalCB12108035%000.000.04135111360.59
2019/20Royal Excel Mouscron (-2022)Jupiler Pro LeagueCB220%000.000.09142913210.63
2018/19Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalCB21173257%000.000.02136313710.65
2017/18SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueCB1078229%000.000.05136212770.63
2016/17SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueCB26216680%200.080.09132612530.62
2015/16SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueCB29245491%100.040.05135412240.57

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsAngola218000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingRio Ave FC2180001387

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
João Aurélio
Liga Portugal · 2020
32€550k€400kfell
Bart Vriends
Eredivisie · 2022
31€350k€400kflat
Elyasa Süme
Super Lig · 2016
33€650k€25kfell
Sergiy Siminin
Premier Liga · 2018
31€700k€250kfell
Johnny Thomsen
Superliga · 2015
33€350k€200kfell
Sergey Terekhov
Premier Liga · 2023
33€1.0M€250kfell
Vitaliy Lysytskyi
Premier Liga · 2014
32€600k€200kfell
Ramon Zomer
Eredivisie · 2016
33€650k€650kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Jan 2024Valenciennes FCGil VicenteUnknown€600k
1 Sept 2022Sint-TruidenValenciennes FCFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2022EyüpsporSint-TruidenFree / loan€700k
19 Jan 2022Sint-TruidenEyüpsporFree / loan€700k
3 Aug 2020Rio AveSint-TruidenUnknown€400k
17 Jul 2020Desportivo AvesRio AveFree / loan€400k
3 Jan 2020Rio AveDesportivo AvesFree / loan€500k
31 Dec 2019MouscronRio AveFree / loan€500k
19 Jul 2019Rio AveMouscronFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2018Waasland-BeverenRio AveFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2015Fulham FC U21Waasland-BeverenFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013KRC Genk U19Fulham FC U21Free / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2013FC BrüsselKRC Genk U19Free / loanData unavailable
31 Jan 2013KRC Genk U19FC BrüsselFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Standard YthKRC Genk U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.