
Buatu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Buatu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €384k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2745 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €182k – €467k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; team strength up (+68 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -69% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 31 | 2745 | 90% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1317 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 21 | 1823 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1348 | 1235 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 5 | 450 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1312 | 1276 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 29 | 2420 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1354 | 1284 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | Liga Portugal | CB | 12 | 1080 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1351 | 1136 | 0.59 |
| 2019/20 | Royal Excel Mouscron (-2022) | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1429 | 1321 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 21 | 1732 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1363 | 1371 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 10 | 782 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1362 | 1277 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 26 | 2166 | 80% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1326 | 1253 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 29 | 2454 | 91% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1354 | 1224 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Angola | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rio Ave FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1387 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Aurélio Liga Portugal · 2020 | 32 | €550k | €400k | fell |
| Bart Vriends Eredivisie · 2022 | 31 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Elyasa Süme Super Lig · 2016 | 33 | €650k | €25k | fell |
| Sergiy Siminin Premier Liga · 2018 | 31 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Johnny Thomsen Superliga · 2015 | 33 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Sergey Terekhov Premier Liga · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Vitaliy Lysytskyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Ramon Zomer Eredivisie · 2016 | 33 | €650k | €650k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2024 | Valenciennes FC | Gil Vicente | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Sint-Truiden | Valenciennes FC | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Eyüpspor | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €700k |
| 19 Jan 2022 | Sint-Truiden | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €700k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Rio Ave | Sint-Truiden | Unknown | €400k |
| 17 Jul 2020 | Desportivo Aves | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €400k |
| 3 Jan 2020 | Rio Ave | Desportivo Aves | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Dec 2019 | Mouscron | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €500k |
| 19 Jul 2019 | Rio Ave | Mouscron | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Waasland-Beveren | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Fulham FC U21 | Waasland-Beveren | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | KRC Genk U19 | Fulham FC U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2013 | FC Brüssel | KRC Genk U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2013 | KRC Genk U19 | FC Brüssel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Standard Yth | KRC Genk U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.