Dorukhan Toköz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dorukhan Toköz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (1344 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €221k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1344 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1147
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €295k – €574k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength down (-82 Elo); role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -37% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1344 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | DM | 26 | 1344 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1272 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CM | 18 | 499 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1361 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CM | 20 | 667 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1283 | 1250 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | CM | 6 | 335 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1251 | 1377 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | CM | 29 | 2118 | 62% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1250 | 1433 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CM | 31 | 1287 | 36% | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1273 | 1408 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CM | 7 | 491 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1363 | 1401 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 20 | 1595 | 52% | 3 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 1387 | 1521 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Eskisehirspor | Super Lig | DM | 4 | 166 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1401 | 1264 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Adana Demirspor | 4 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 2 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1487 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1409 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 3 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1365 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Thomson Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 30 | €400k | €375k | flat |
| Scott Robertson Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 29 | €650k | €250k | fell |
| Ajdin Hrustic Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Zeki Yildirim Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Marco Rojas Superliga · 2020 | 29 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Evgeniy Shlyakov Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Erdal Rakip Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €850k | €700k | flat |
| Emiliano Marcondes Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | Eyüpspor | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Adana Demirspor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €2.1M |
| 21 Jul 2023 | Trabzonspor | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 29 Jul 2021 | Besiktas | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €4.7M |
| 9 Jul 2018 | Eskisehirspor | Besiktas | €150k | €700k |
| 19 May 2015 | Eskisehir U21 | Eskisehirspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Eskisehir U19 | Eskisehir U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Eskisehir Yth. | Eskisehir U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.