Nader Ghandri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nader Ghandri's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €510k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1402 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1340
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €262k – €704k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 74% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -57% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1402 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 1402 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1340 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1716 | 64% | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1298 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 1041 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1331 | 1273 | 0.49 |
| 2018/19 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1221 | 1385 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 4 | 174 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1430 | 1357 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 327 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 295 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sivakov Premier Liga · 2020 | 32 | €950k | €400k | fell |
| Gia Grigalava Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Zoran Nizic Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| Gregor Balazic Premier Liga · 2019 | 31 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Ivo Pinto Eredivisie · 2022 | 32 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Ricardo van Rhijn Eredivisie · 2021 | 30 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Tom Beugelsdijk Eredivisie · 2022 | 32 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Marco Baixinho Liga Portugal · 2021 | 32 | €500k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Feb 2026 | Akhmat Grozny | Swehly | Free / loan | €900k |
| 6 Feb 2024 | Ajman Club | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Club Africain | Ajman Club | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Aug 2021 | KVC Westerlo | Club Africain | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Slavia Sofia | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Feb 2021 | KVC Westerlo | Slavia Sofia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Royal Antwerp | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | KVC Westerlo | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Royal Antwerp | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 11 Aug 2017 | Club Africain | Royal Antwerp | €317k | €300k |
| 7 Jul 2014 | AC Arles-Avignon | Club Africain | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | JA Drancy | AC Arles-Avignon | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | JA Drancy U19 | JA Drancy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.