Luka Modrić

The model rates Luka Modrić's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-4.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (2816 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2816 (82% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.16

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.13

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

93 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.93 (rank 4)

Team strength (Elo)

1570

Opponent strength

1501

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€1.4M – €3.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength down (-194 Elo); role change CM -> DM.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -55% to +0%).

• ▲Age 41: resale value typically declines.
• ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.