Georgiy Melkadze
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Georgiy Melkadze's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (2049 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €820k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2049 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.60
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1354
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €676k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -43% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 2049 | 76% | 7 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.60 | 1354 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 1019 | 38% | 2 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 1313 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | ST | 8 | 466 | 17% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.50 | 1335 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | ST | 24 | 1519 | 56% | 5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 1309 | 1310 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 286 | 11% | 2 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.51 | 1332 | 1441 | 0.52 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | SS | 3 | 48 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 1389 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | SS | 19 | 1108 | 41% | 3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.51 | 1380 | 1307 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK Tambov (-2021) | Premier Liga | LW | 18 | 1521 | 56% | 7 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 1386 | 1285 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 2 | 34 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1374 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 10 | 378 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1407 | 1444 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | FC Tosno (-2018) | Premier Liga | LW | 21 | 796 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1407 | 1241 | 0.75 |
| 2015/16 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 4 | 84 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1422 | 1462 | 0.79 |
| 2014/15 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 2 | 64 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1512 | 1450 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 250 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 160 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1460 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 261 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1357 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | FC Tosno (-2018) | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonder Cádiz Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Michael de Leeuw Eredivisie · 2015 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Hervé Kage Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 28 | €1.2M | €250k | fell |
| Bernard Berisha Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ali Sowe Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.9M | fell |
| Yuki Soma Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Serdar Gürler Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €1.2M | €1.8M | rose |
| Fredy Liga Portugal · 2019 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2025 | Kolkheti Poti | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €300k |
| 27 Jan 2024 | FK Sochi | Kolkheti Poti | Free / loan | €500k |
| 25 Jan 2022 | Spartak Moscow | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Akhmat Grozny | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 13 Aug 2020 | Spartak Moscow | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Tambov | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Sept 2019 | Spartak Moscow | Tambov | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Spartak 2 | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Tosno | Spartak 2 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Spartak 2 | Tosno | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Akademia FCSM | Spartak II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.