Marcos Felipe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcos Felipe's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €791k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1710 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €465k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -37% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1710 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | GK | 19 | 1710 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1272 | 1204 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andries Noppert Eredivisie · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Gökhan Akkan Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €1.6M | €550k | fell |
| Kristoffer Nordfeldt Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €800k | €750k | flat |
| Ricardo Friedrich Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €850k | €900k | flat |
| Ertaç Özbir Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €500k | €750k | rose |
| Scott Fox Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 28 | €500k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Eyüpspor | EC Bahia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 14 Aug 2025 | EC Bahia | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Fluminense | EC Bahia | €400k | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | EC Bahia | Fluminense | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Fluminense | EC Bahia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Fluminense U20 | Fluminense | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Nov 2015 | Macaé | Fluminense U20 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 Jul 2015 | Fluminense U20 | Macaé | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Fluminense U17 | Fluminense U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.