Iñaki Peña
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iñaki Peña's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-7.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1440 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-403 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -63% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1440 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | GK | 16 | 1440 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1500 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | GK | 16 | 1395 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1503 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | GK | 10 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1463 | 1723 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | GK | 2 | 72 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1394 | 1696 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1249 | 1326 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Batalla Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Curci Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Zeljko Brkic Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| John Ruddy Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Sergio Rico Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Samir Ujkani Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iván Villar Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Zack Steffen Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Elche CF | Barcelona | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 27 Aug 2025 | Barcelona | Elche CF | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Galatasaray | Barcelona | Free / loan | €4.2M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Barcelona | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Villarreal Yth. | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.