Aarón Escandell
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aarón Escandell's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3240 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -63% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1504 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | UD Las Palmas | Laliga | GK | 2 | 152 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1571 | 1344 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | Granada CF | Laliga | GK | 4 | 283 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1521 | 1415 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Granada CF | Laliga | GK | 5 | 450 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1552 | 1466 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Granada CF | Laliga | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1544 | 1512 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | UD Las Palmas | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 5 | 510 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Granada CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 5 | 510 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luigi Sepe Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Arthur Desmas Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Saso Fornezzi Super Lig · 2013 | 31 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Antonio Mirante Serie A · 2015 | 32 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mory Diaw Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Orestis Karnezis Serie A · 2016 | 31 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Alexis Thébaux Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Pegolo Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2024 | UD Las Palmas | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 24 Jul 2023 | FC Cartagena | UD Las Palmas | €400k | €1.0M |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Granada CF | FC Cartagena | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Recre Granada | Granada CF | Unknown | €250k |
| 9 Jul 2017 | Atl. Malagueño | Granada B | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Málaga U19 | Atl. Malagueño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Valencia U19 | Málaga U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Villarreal Yth. | Valencia CF You | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.