Pau López
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pau López's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 60.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 810 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €861k – €2.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -66% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 810 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 9 | 810 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1473 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Girona FC | Laliga | GK | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1446 | 1403 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | GK | 33 | 2940 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1460 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | GK | 33 | 2925 | 86% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1448 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | GK | 29 | 2610 | 76% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1435 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 21 | 1816 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1438 | 1591 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1406 | 1582 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1556 | 1510 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | GK | 29 | 2566 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1541 | 1523 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3195 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1568 | 1474 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | GK | 2 | 139 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1667 | 1532 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1484 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Girona FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1826 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 13 | 1200 | 0 | 0 | 1579 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1437 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 12 | 1018 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 8 | 658 | 0 | 0 | 1548 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Marco Sportiello Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Marko Dmitrovic Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
| Pierluigi Gollini Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
| Andrés Fernández Laliga · 2019 | 33 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Boaz Myhill Premier League · 2013 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Artem Rebrov Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Brad Jones Premier League · 2013 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Toluca | Real Betis | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Marseille | Toluca | €4.8M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Toluca | Marseille | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Marseille | Toluca | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Girona | Marseille | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Marseille | Girona | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Roma | Marseille | €12.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Marseille | Roma | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 17 Jul 2021 | Roma | Marseille | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 10 Jul 2019 | Real Betis | Roma | €23.5M | €20.0M |
| 4 Jul 2018 | Espanyol | Real Betis | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Tottenham | Espanyol | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Espanyol | Tottenham | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Girona FC Youth | Espanyol Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.