Sofyan Amrabat
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sofyan Amrabat's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-7.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.9M-11.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-6.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.37x the positional average in the league (1392 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.5M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -62% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1392 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €6.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; changed club; league level up (+195 Elo); relative output down 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -68% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1392 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | DM | 17 | 1296 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1498 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | DM | 2 | 96 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1221 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | DM | 26 | 1791 | 55% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 1276 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | DM | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1244 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | DM | 21 | 932 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1609 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | DM | 29 | 2004 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1477 | 1597 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | DM | 23 | 931 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1514 | 1470 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 31 | 2444 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1468 | 1422 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | DM | 34 | 2928 | 86% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1440 | 1314 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 1 | 81 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1308 | 1578 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 16 | 879 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1374 | 1546 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 21 | 1190 | 39% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 1358 | 1530 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | RM | 31 | 2573 | 84% | 0 | 7 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 1348 | 1425 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CM | 7 | 280 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 1259 | 1369 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | DM | 4 | 205 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1379 | 1289 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 316 | 1 | 0 | 1507 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 315 | 1 | 0 | 1607 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Morocco | 3 | 194 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Morocco | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 10 | 930 | 0 | 1 | 1517 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 1420 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 5 | 327 | 0 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 5 | 260 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1741 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1364 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 528 | 1 | 0 | 1734 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 202 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Mavuba Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sebastian Rudy Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jérémy Toulalan Laliga · 2013 | 30 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Walter Gargano Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Lucas Leiva Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Gökhan Inler Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €7.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lassana Diarra Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €14.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Rade Krunic Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Real Betis | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Fenerbahçe | Real Betis | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Fiorentina | Fenerbahçe | €12.0M | €17.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Fenerbahçe | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Fiorentina | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Man Utd | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Fiorentina | Man Utd | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Hellas Verona | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Fiorentina | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Hellas Verona | Fiorentina | €19.5M | €10.0M |
| 28 Jan 2020 | Club Brugge | Hellas Verona | €3.6M | €10.0M |
| 27 Jan 2020 | Hellas Verona | Club Brugge | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 22 Aug 2019 | Club Brugge | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 24 Aug 2018 | Feyenoord | Club Brugge | €2.5M | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Utrecht | Feyenoord | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Utrecht U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Utrecht U19 | Utrecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Utrecht U17 | Utrecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Utrecht Youth | Utrecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Zuidvogels Yth. | Utrecht Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.