Oleksandr Tymchyk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleksandr Tymchyk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 29th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 501 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1324
- Opponent strength
- 1137
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €786k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts; team strength down (-82 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -70% to -61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 501 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 11 | 501 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1137 | 1324 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 20 | 1776 | 66% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1204 | 1406 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 23 | 1785 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1274 | 1458 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 19 | 1407 | 52% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1275 | 1433 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 12 | 681 | 42% | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.12 | 1280 | 1532 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 4 | 280 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1254 | 1563 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RB | 20 | 1602 | 81% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1353 | 1463 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RB | 16 | 1236 | 62% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1316 | 1429 | 0.57 |
| 2017/18 | PFK Stal Kamyanske (-2018) | Premier Liga | RB | 15 | 1350 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1323 | 1244 | 0.62 |
| 2017/18 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RB | 2 | 180 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 1315 | 1423 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | RB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1342 | 1566 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 287 | 0 | 0 | 1400 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 5 | 386 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 341 | 0 | 0 | 1441 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 257 | 0 | 1 | 1526 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 1732 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 6 | 514 | 0 | 0 | 1458 |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1550 |
| 2018/19 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Ukrainian Cup | PFK Stal Kamyanske (-2018) | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Elabdellaoui Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
| Roderick Miranda Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Boli Bolingoli Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.2M | €700k | fell |
| Filip Novak Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Valentin Rosier Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Georgiy Dzhikiya Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Majid Hosseini Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €2.2M | €700k | fell |
| Alpaslan Öztürk Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €1.1M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2020 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Dynamo Kyiv | Unknown | €800k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Zorya Lugansk | Dynamo Kyiv II | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2017 | Stal Kamyanske | Dynamo Kyiv II | Free / loan | €300k |
| 18 Jul 2017 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Stal Kamyanske | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Jul 2015 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2014 | BRW-VIK | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.