Phillip Tietz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Phillip Tietz's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-11.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-4.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1809 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1809 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1479
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+75 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -49% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 19 | 1620 | 53% | 5 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 1480 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 10 | 189 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 1508 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 1685 | 55% | 7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1501 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 2406 | 79% | 8 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 1517 | 1393 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 4 | 380 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aílton Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Steven Fletcher Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Karim Onisiwo Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Pablo de Blasis Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Björn Vleminckx Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sami Allagui Bundesliga · 2014 | 28 | €3.0M | €750k | fell |
| Takuma Asano Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Obafemi Martins Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2026 | Augsburg | Mainz | €4.0M | €3.5M |
| 12 Jul 2023 | Darmstadt 98 | Augsburg | €2.2M | €2.7M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Wehen Wiesbaden | Darmstadt 98 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SC Paderborn | Wehen Wiesbaden | Unknown | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Carl Zeiss Jena | SC Paderborn | Free / loan | €350k |
| 14 Aug 2018 | SC Paderborn | Carl Zeiss Jena | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | E. Braunschweig | SC Paderborn | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Braunschw. U19 | E. Braunschweig | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Braunschw. U17 | Braunschw. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Braunschw. Yth. | Braunschw. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.