Andoni Gorosabel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andoni Gorosabel's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1358 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €856k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -70% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1358 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 24 | 1358 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1495 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | RB | 20 | 1490 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1516 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RB | 36 | 2869 | 84% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 1492 | 1431 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RB | 27 | 1710 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1502 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RB | 32 | 2297 | 67% | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1529 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RB | 32 | 2390 | 70% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1548 | 1573 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RB | 14 | 713 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1575 | 1567 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RB | 7 | 454 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1556 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | RB | 2 | 76 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1406 | 1535 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 445 | 0 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 248 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 474 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 5 | 311 | 0 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 231 | 0 | 0 | 1402 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 5 | 208 | 0 | 1 | 1639 |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Real Sociedad | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 1781 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 85 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 2 | 180 | 0 | 2 | 1372 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaël Ciani Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €2.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nélson Laliga · 2013 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.1M | fell |
| Iñigo Lekue Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Danny Simpson Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Marek Cech Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Anton Ferdinand Premier League · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Cheikh M'Bengue Ligue 1 · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Pape Diakhaté Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Alavés | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Real Sociedad | Alavés | €1.5M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Real Unión | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | €200k |
| 9 Jul 2016 | Real Sociedad B | Real Unión | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Sociedad C | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2015 | SD Beasain | Berio | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Berio | SD Beasain | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | R. Sociedad U19 | Berio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.