Mauro Arambarri

The model rates Mauro Arambarri's performance-implied value at EUR 4.7M-9.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (3255 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

3255 (95% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.22

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.27

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

84 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.95 (rank 2)

Team strength (Elo)

1446

Opponent strength

1494

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€2.4M – €5.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output down 35% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -67% to -18%).

• ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.