Kevin Stöger
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin Stöger's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1324 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €696k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1324 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1530
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €472k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -72% to -54%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1324 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 1324 | 43% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 1530 | 1422 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 1544 | 50% | 3 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 1513 | 1427 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2678 | 88% | 7 | 9 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 1509 | 1372 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 2608 | 85% | 5 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 1525 | 1409 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | AM | 23 | 400 | 13% | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 1529 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | AM | 19 | 528 | 17% | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 1494 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Bundesliga | AM | 17 | 1269 | 41% | 0 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.46 | 1518 | 1393 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 2120 | 69% | 1 | 7 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 1519 | 1431 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 249 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 1 | 120 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Bochum | 3 | 246 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2 | 165 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 3 | 172 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tolgay Arslan Serie A · 2022 | 32 | €2.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Adrien Silva Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Matteo Brighi Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €1.6M | €400k | fell |
| Roberto Guana Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| César de la Hoz Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Diego Pérez Serie A · 2013 | 33 | €1.1M | €100k | fell |
| Dani García Laliga · 2023 | 33 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Joey Barton Premier League · 2017 | 35 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | VfL Bochum | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Mainz | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 7 Oct 2020 | Without Club | Mainz | Unknown | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | F. Düsseldorf | Without Club | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | VfL Bochum | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | SC Paderborn | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €900k |
| 25 Aug 2015 | Stuttgart | SC Paderborn | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | 1.FC K'lautern | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stuttgart | 1.FC K'lautern | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Stuttgart II | Stuttgart | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Stuttgart U19 | Stuttgart II | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Stuttgart U17 | Stuttgart U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | OÖ U17 | Stuttgart U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2008 | OÖ U15 | OÖ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2007 | ATSV Steyr Yth. | OÖ U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.