
André Ferreira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates André Ferreira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €379k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1387
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €266k – €581k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 49 pts; changed club; team strength up (+63 Elo); league level down (-137 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -59% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 22 | 1980 | 65% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 1387 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1584 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Granada CF | Laliga | GK | 15 | 1339 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1485 | 1315 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1367 | 1321 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1316 | 1358 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1352 | 1321 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | Liga Portugal | GK | 8 | 708 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1344 | 1321 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Paços de Ferreira | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yannick Thoelen Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 30 | €525k | €400k | fell |
| Bogdan Shust Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Onurcan Piri Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| Oleksandr Nad Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €700k | €150k | fell |
| Vaná Alves Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €475k | €500k | flat |
| Vitaliy Nedilko Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Wouter Biebauw Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 30 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Artur Nigmatullin Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €700k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2025 | Real Valladolid | Moreirense | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Granada CF | Real Valladolid | €1.0M | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Valladolid | Granada CF | Free / loan | €800k |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Granada CF | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €800k |
| 20 Jul 2022 | Paços Ferreira | Granada CF | €750k | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Santa Clara | Paços Ferreira | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica B | Santa Clara | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Desportivo Aves | Benfica B | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Benfica B | Desportivo Aves | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Leixões | Benfica B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica B | Leixões | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Nogueirense | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Boavista U17 | Nogueirense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Boavista U15 | Boavista U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Boavista CJ | Boavista U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.