André Ferreira

30 yrs · Goalkeeper · Portugal
Moreirense FC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€600k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€162k – €599k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€669k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€266k – €581k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€69k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€162k – €599k
Model value (performance-implied)€669k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€266k – €581k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates André Ferreira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 63

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage40th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €379k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationVery low-29% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1980 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
40 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1279
Opponent strength
1387
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€266k – €581k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 49 pts; changed club; team strength up (+63 Elo); league level down (-137 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -59% to +1%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
182 (all positions)
Relative output kept
70%–147%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
73%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Moreirense FCLiga PortugalGK22198065%010.050.03138712790.58
2024/25Real Valladolid CFLaligaGK654016%000.000.01158412160.95
2023/24Granada CFLaligaGK15133939%000.000.00148513151.00
2021/22FC Paços de FerreiraLiga PortugalGK32288094%000.000.00136713210.67
2020/21CD Santa ClaraLiga PortugalGK1903%000.000.00131613580.61
2019/20CD Santa ClaraLiga PortugalGK32709%000.000.00135213210.59
2018/19Desportivo Aves (- 2020)Liga PortugalGK870823%000.000.00134413210.65

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Valladolid CF325500—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Paços de Ferreira4360001525

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Yannick Thoelen
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
30€525k€400kfell
Bogdan Shust
Premier Liga · 2015
29€700k€400kfell
Onurcan Piri
Super Lig · 2023
29€450k€200kfell
Oleksandr Nad
Premier Liga · 2014
29€700k€150kfell
Vaná Alves
Liga Portugal · 2020
29€475k€500kflat
Vitaliy Nedilko
Premier Liga · 2014
32€600k€200kfell
Wouter Biebauw
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
30€500k€800krose
Artur Nigmatullin
Premier Liga · 2022
31€700k€700kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
21 Jul 2025Real ValladolidMoreirenseFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2024Granada CFReal Valladolid€1.0M€800k
30 Jun 2024Real ValladolidGranada CFFree / loan€800k
29 Jan 2024Granada CFReal ValladolidFree / loan€800k
20 Jul 2022Paços FerreiraGranada CF€750k€900k
1 Jul 2021Santa ClaraPaços FerreiraUnknown€200k
1 Jul 2019Benfica BSanta ClaraUnknown€300k
30 Jun 2019Desportivo AvesBenfica BFree / loan€300k
31 Aug 2018Benfica BDesportivo AvesFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2018LeixõesBenfica BFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2017Benfica BLeixõesFree / loan€350k
1 Jul 2015Benfica U19Benfica BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Benfica U17Benfica U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2013NogueirenseBenfica U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Boavista U17NogueirenseFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Boavista U15Boavista U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Boavista CJBoavista U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

André Ferreira · MoneyballAI