
Uğurcan Çakır
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Uğurcan Çakır's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-7.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.2M-18.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-10.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €10.5M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1482
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €10.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+175 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -76% to -0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | GK | 25 | 2250 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1269 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1244 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 32 | 2880 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1284 | 1307 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 35 | 3134 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1297 | 1379 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 31 | 2761 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1289 | 1377 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 36 | 3229 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1253 | 1433 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 38 | 3420 | 95% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1271 | 1363 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 33 | 2891 | 94% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1336 | 1410 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 20 | 1800 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1378 | 1459 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | GK | 6 | 495 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 1284 | 1432 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 12 | 1087 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Trabzonspor | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Trabzonspor | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1565 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1333 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Georgiy Bushchan Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €9.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Dominik Livakovic Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| José Sá Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €7.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Rui Patrício Liga Portugal · 2017 | 29 | €16.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Mert Günok Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €4.0M | €900k | fell |
| Kenneth Vermeer Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Denys Boyko Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €5.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | €27.5M | €9.5M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | 1461 Trabzon | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 15 Jan 2016 | Trabzonspor | 1461 Trabzon | Free / loan | €100k |
| 3 Oct 2014 | Trabzonspor U21 | Trabzonspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Trabzonspor U19 | Trabzonspor U21 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Trabzonspor U17 | Trabzonspor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2012 | 1461 Trbzn. Yth | Trabzonspor U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Oct 2011 | Yamanspor Yth | 1461 Trbzn. Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Feb 2009 | Cekmeköy Yth | Yamanspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.