Uğurcan Çakır

30 yrs · Goalkeeper · Türkiye
Trabzonspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€15.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€7.2M – €18.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.5M – €7.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.1M – €10.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€17.0M – -€74k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€7.2M – €18.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.5M – €7.2M
Projected value (24 months)€4.1M – €10.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Uğurcan Çakır's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-7.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.2M-18.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-10.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 10

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average66.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €10.5M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-53% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €19.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2610 (85% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
66 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1482
Opponent strength
1269
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.1M – €10.0M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+175 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -76% to -0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GalatasaraySuper LigGK25225074%000.000.00126915010.40
2025/26TrabzonsporSuper LigGK436012%000.000.00124413680.40
2024/25TrabzonsporSuper LigGK32288089%000.000.00128413070.39
2023/24TrabzonsporSuper LigGK35313492%000.000.00129713790.45
2022/23TrabzonsporSuper LigGK31276185%000.000.00128913770.50
2021/22TrabzonsporSuper LigGK36322994%000.000.00125314330.42
2020/21TrabzonsporSuper LigGK38342095%010.030.03127113630.37
2019/20TrabzonsporSuper LigGK33289194%010.030.01133614100.45
2018/19TrabzonsporSuper LigGK20180059%000.000.00137814590.58
2017/18TrabzonsporSuper LigGK649516%010.180.03128414320.68

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray121087001637
2025/26World CupTurkiye327000—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingTrabzonspor4360001374
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingTrabzonspor2210001443
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueTrabzonspor5450001546
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingTrabzonspor2180001478
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingTrabzonspor4390001564
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingTrabzonspor4360001466
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueTrabzonspor3270001565
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingTrabzonspor190001333

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Roberto
Super League 1 · 2015
29€8.0M€2.0Mfell
Georgiy Bushchan
Premier Liga · 2022
28€9.0M€7.0Mfell
Dominik Livakovic
Super Lig · 2024
29€11.0M€4.0Mfell
José Sá
Super League 1 · 2021
28€7.5M€18.0Mrose
Rui Patrício
Liga Portugal · 2017
29€16.0M€20.0Mrose
Mert Günok
Super Lig · 2020
31€4.0M€900kfell
Kenneth Vermeer
Eredivisie · 2013
27€6.5M€6.0Mflat
Denys Boyko
Premier Liga · 2015
27€5.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2025TrabzonsporGalatasaray€27.5M€9.5M
30 Jun 20161461 TrabzonTrabzonsporFree / loan€250k
15 Jan 2016Trabzonspor1461 TrabzonFree / loan€100k
3 Oct 2014Trabzonspor U21TrabzonsporUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2014Trabzonspor U19Trabzonspor U21Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2013Trabzonspor U17Trabzonspor U19UnknownData unavailable
31 Aug 20121461 Trbzn. YthTrabzonspor U17Free / loanData unavailable
14 Oct 2011Yamanspor Yth1461 Trbzn. YthFree / loanData unavailable
13 Feb 2009Cekmeköy YthYamanspor YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Uğurcan Çakır · MoneyballAI