Dario Saric
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dario Saric's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (1398 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €241k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1398 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1139
- Opponent strength
- 1261
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €351k – €660k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -41% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1398 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 24 | 1398 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1261 | 1139 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 32 | 2567 | 75% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1303 | 1244 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Palermo FC | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgi Aburjania Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Giorgi Merebashvili Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Alexandros Nikolias Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Sotiris Balafas Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Dan Glazer Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Shaun Byrne Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 29 | €375k | €275k | fell |
| Reuven Niemeijer Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Palermo | Antalyaspor | Unknown | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Antalyaspor | Palermo | Free / loan | €700k |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Palermo | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Cesena | Palermo | Free / loan | €750k |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Palermo | Cesena | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Antalyaspor | Palermo | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 25 Aug 2023 | Palermo | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Ascoli | Palermo | €1.8M | €2.5M |
| 11 Sept 2020 | Carpi | Ascoli | €330k | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Robur Siena | Carpi | Free / loan | €50k |
| 28 Jul 2016 | Carpi | Robur Siena | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Carpi U19 | Carpi | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Castelfranco | Carpi U19 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 2 Feb 2015 | Carpi U19 | Castelfranco | Free / loan | €75k |
| 5 Aug 2014 | AC Cesena Youth | Carpi U19 | Unknown | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Carpi FC Youth | AC Cesena Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AC Cesena Youth | Carpi FC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.