Maksim Osipenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Osipenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -68% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1890 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €739k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; changed club; team strength up (+82 Elo); relative output down 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -59% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1890 | 70% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1320 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 30 | 2528 | 94% | 9 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.31 | 1299 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 24 | 2034 | 75% | 6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 1349 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2321 | 86% | 6 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 1323 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1357 | 1283 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2441 | 90% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1355 | 1316 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK Tambov (-2021) | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 1520 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1419 | 1285 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1381 | 1374 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 7 | 424 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 10 | 553 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 5 | 219 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 516 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK Tambov (-2021) | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverrir Ingi Ingason Superliga · 2024 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Aleksandr Martynovich Premier Liga · 2020 | 33 | €2.8M | €500k | fell |
| Laurent Ciman Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Jelle Van Damme Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Michael Ngadeu Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 31 | €3.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Denys Favorov Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Pablo Fontanello Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €1.7M | €2.0M | flat |
| Fabián Balbuena Premier Liga · 2024 | 33 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Rostov | Dynamo Moscow | €2.9M | €5.0M |
| 9 Jan 2020 | Tambov | Rostov | €250k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Fakel Voronezh | Tambov | Free / loan | €550k |
| 22 Feb 2016 | Irtysh Omsk | Fakel Voronezh | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Irtysh Omsk II | Irtysh Omsk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.