Zisis Karachalios
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zisis Karachalios's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (1326 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €177k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1326 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1240
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €221k – €498k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -32% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1326 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | DM | 18 | 1326 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1240 | 1225 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | DM | 23 | 1709 | 73% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1307 | 1196 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | PAS Giannina | Super League 1 | DM | 21 | 1662 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1249 | 1131 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | PAS Giannina | Super League 1 | DM | 21 | 1798 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1230 | 1182 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | PAS Giannina | Super League 1 | DM | 23 | 1922 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1259 | 1248 | 0.39 |
| 2018/19 | APO Levadiakos Football Club | Super League 1 | DM | 19 | 1258 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1295 | 1114 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | APO Levadiakos Football Club | Super League 1 | DM | 8 | 285 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1276 | 1219 | 0.48 |
| 2016/17 | APO Levadiakos Football Club | Super League 1 | DM | 14 | 848 | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1369 | 1191 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 7 | 562 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 8 | 569 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | APO Levadiakos Football Club | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | APO Levadiakos Football Club | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | APO Levadiakos Football Club | 2 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wotherspoon Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 29 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| İbrahim Akdağ Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €675k | €150k | fell |
| Troels Klöve Superliga · 2020 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Martin Woods Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 30 | €300k | €275k | flat |
| Erik Sabo Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €725k | €600k | flat |
| Ali Crawford Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 31 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Güray Vural Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Romeu Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €450k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | PAS Giannina | OFI Crete | €100k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Levadiakos | PAS Giannina | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olympiacos U20 | Levadiakos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Anag. Karditsa | Olympiacos U20 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Jul 2015 | Olympiacos U20 | Anag. Karditsa | Free / loan | €100k |
| 11 Jul 2014 | Anag. Karditsa | Olympiacos U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jan 2013 | Ifestos Kardits | Anag. Karditsa | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.