Uğurcan Yazğılı
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Uğurcan Yazğılı's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €800k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2005 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1230
- Opponent strength
- 1292
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €889k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -27% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 26 | 2005 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1292 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 28 | 1942 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1289 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 35 | 2692 | 79% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1317 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 14 | 755 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1321 | 1355 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 3 | 101 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1315 | 1330 | 0.42 |
| 2019/20 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1460 | 1273 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | CM | 1 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1325 | 1259 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Konyaspor | 2 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 1389 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassine Meriah Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Silvije Begic Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Kye Rowles Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Uros Radakovic Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €1.3M | €650k | fell |
| Chidozie Awaziem Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Mattias Johansson Super League 1 · 2018 | 26 | €1.5M | €550k | fell |
| Jordi Vanlerberghe Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2022 | Adanaspor | Konyaspor | €300k | €350k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Kasimpasa | Adanaspor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 12 Jul 2018 | Bucaspor | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €100k |
| 4 Jan 2017 | Bucaspor Yth | Bucaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Sept 2013 | D.Bakir BB Yth | Bucaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.