Tobias Salquist
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tobias Salquist's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €275k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1538 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1315
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €265k – €498k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -46% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1538 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 19 | 1538 | 78% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1268 | 1314 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 1 | 13 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1161 | 1341 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 16 | 1361 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1272 | 1238 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1758 | 89% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1300 | 1266 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 22 | 1976 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1279 | 1231 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 5 | 361 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1368 | 1276 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 15 | 1157 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1293 | 1183 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 3 | 97 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1265 | 1188 | 0.48 |
| 2014/15 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 5 | 425 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1352 | 1097 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1367 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 6 | 600 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Breukers Eredivisie · 2017 | 30 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Kevin Mensah Superliga · 2020 | 29 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Joonas Tamm Premier Liga · 2021 | 29 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Sergiy Voronin Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Martín Montoya Super League 1 · 2024 | 33 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Mitchell Dijks Eredivisie · 2024 | 31 | €850k | €850k | flat |
| Björn Kopplin Superliga · 2020 | 31 | €325k | €300k | flat |
| Vaclav Prochazka Super Lig · 2017 | 33 | €450k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2025 | Chicago | Nordsjaelland | €270k | €800k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Silkeborg IF | Chicago | €1.0M | €850k |
| 13 Jan 2021 | Hobro IK | Silkeborg IF | Free / loan | €250k |
| 9 Sept 2020 | Lillestrøm SK | Hobro IK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 8 Jan 2019 | Waasland-Beveren | Lillestrøm SK | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Silkeborg IF | Waasland-Beveren | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Fjölnir | Silkeborg IF | Free / loan | €125k |
| 2 Mar 2016 | Silkeborg IF | Fjölnir | Free / loan | €100k |
| 29 Jan 2015 | Silkeborg U19 | Silkeborg IF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Silkeborg Yth. | Silkeborg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FCM Youth | Silkeborg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.