
Toni Martínez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Toni Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-16.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.3M-9.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-9.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (2730 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.8M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2730 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €9.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; relative output up 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -54% to +33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 37 | 2730 | 80% | 14 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 1484 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 28 | 1004 | 29% | 4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 1481 | 1418 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1178 | 1508 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 20 | 510 | 17% | 4 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.27 | 1302 | 1628 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 31 | 1139 | 37% | 5 | 5 | 0.79 | 0.34 | 1337 | 1744 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 19 | 466 | 15% | 3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.28 | 1317 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 18 | 602 | 20% | 7 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.37 | 1296 | 1680 | 0.61 |
| 2020/21 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | ST | 1 | 63 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.81 | 1571 | 1332 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | ST | 32 | 2192 | 72% | 10 | 6 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 1364 | 1328 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 349 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1718 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1785 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 7 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2022/23 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 4 | 218 | 2 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 6 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 3 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2020/21 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1605 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 220 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Niederlechner Bundesliga · 2020 | 30 | €8.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Iago Falque Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €10.0M | €17.5M | rose |
| Nils Petersen Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €12.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Gerard Deulofeu Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €15.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Raúl Bobadilla Bundesliga · 2015 | 28 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| M'Bala Nzola Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Krzysztof Piatek Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €7.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Papu Gómez Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €7.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2024 | Porto | Alavés | €2.0M | €5.0M |
| 4 Oct 2020 | Famalicão | Porto | €3.2M | €7.0M |
| 22 Jul 2019 | West Ham U23 | Famalicão | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | CD Lugo | West Ham U23 | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 18 Jan 2019 | West Ham U23 | CD Lugo | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 17 Jan 2019 | R. Majadahonda | West Ham U23 | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 13 Aug 2018 | West Ham U23 | R. Majadahonda | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Real Valladolid | West Ham U23 | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Feb 2018 | West Ham U23 | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 May 2017 | Oxford United | West Ham U23 | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 23 Jan 2017 | West Ham U23 | Oxford United | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Valencia U19 | West Ham U23 | €3.0M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Real Murcia You | Valencia CF You | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.