Toni Martínez

29 yrs · Striker · Spain
Deportivo Alavés · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€7.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.3M – €9.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.9M – €16.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.2M – €9.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.8M – €11.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.3M – €9.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.9M – €16.2M
Projected value (24 months)€2.2M – €9.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Toni Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-16.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.3M-9.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-9.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (2730 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 24

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh75.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €6.8M vs market €7.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2730 (80% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.56
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.61
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
76 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1410
Opponent strength
1484
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.2M – €9.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; relative output up 28% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -54% to +33%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Deportivo AlavésLaligaST37273080%1430.560.61148414100.95
2024/25Deportivo AlavésLaligaST28100429%400.360.49148114180.95
2024/25FC PortoLiga PortugalST130%000.000.22117815080.51
2023/24FC PortoLiga PortugalST2051017%400.710.27130216280.58
2022/23FC PortoLiga PortugalST31113937%550.790.34133717440.68
2021/22FC PortoLiga PortugalST1946615%300.580.28131716920.67
2020/21FC PortoLiga PortugalST1860220%701.050.37129616800.61
2020/21FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalST1632%000.000.81157113320.61
2019/20FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalST32219272%1060.660.72136413280.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyDeportivo Alavés534940—
2024/25Copa Del ReyDeportivo Alavés210100—
2023/24Supercup Candido De OliveiraFC Porto125001718
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto26001785
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto7106001601
2022/23Supercup Candido De OliveiraFC Porto145001286
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFC Porto4218201572
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto6143001754
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto3102001586
2020/21Supercup Candido De OliveiraFC Porto11001605
2017/18Fa CupWest Ham United322001—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Florian Niederlechner
Bundesliga · 2020
30€8.0M€2.2Mfell
Iago Falque
Serie A · 2017
27€10.0M€17.5Mrose
Nils Petersen
Bundesliga · 2018
30€12.0M€6.5Mfell
Gerard Deulofeu
Serie A · 2022
28€15.0M€1.0Mfell
Raúl Bobadilla
Bundesliga · 2015
28€4.5M€4.0Mflat
M'Bala Nzola
Serie A · 2023
27€8.0M€6.0Mfell
Krzysztof Piatek
Serie A · 2023
28€7.0M€8.5Mrose
Papu Gómez
Serie A · 2016
28€7.0M€18.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
27 Aug 2024PortoAlavés€2.0M€5.0M
4 Oct 2020FamalicãoPorto€3.2M€7.0M
22 Jul 2019West Ham U23FamalicãoFree / loan€1.2M
30 Jun 2019CD LugoWest Ham U23Free / loan€1.2M
18 Jan 2019West Ham U23CD LugoFree / loan€1.5M
17 Jan 2019R. MajadahondaWest Ham U23Free / loan€1.5M
13 Aug 2018West Ham U23R. MajadahondaFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2018Real ValladolidWest Ham U23Free / loan€1.5M
1 Feb 2018West Ham U23Real ValladolidFree / loan€1.5M
31 May 2017Oxford UnitedWest Ham U23Free / loan€1.5M
23 Jan 2017West Ham U23Oxford UnitedFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2016Valencia U19West Ham U23€3.0MData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Valencia CF YouValencia U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Real Murcia YouValencia CF YouFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.