Lion Lauberbach
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lion Lauberbach's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1872 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €1.7M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1872 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1370
- Opponent strength
- 1362
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €599k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -73% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 22 | 1872 | 69% | 6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 1362 | 1370 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 25 | 1380 | 51% | 3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 1360 | 1350 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 25 | 1728 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 1415 | 1367 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Volkswagen Supercup | KV Mechelen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1497 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Valente Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ahmet Ilhan Özek Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €550k | fell |
| Carlos Mané Liga Portugal · 2021 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Maicón Super Lig · 2018 | 28 | €2.8M | €1.6M | fell |
| Mbilla Etame Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Odaïr Fortes Ligue 1 · 2014 | 27 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Kirill Panchenko Premier Liga · 2019 | 30 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Orlando Sá Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 30 | €1.2M | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | KV Mechelen | Venezia | €3.0M | €1.7M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | E. Braunschweig | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €600k |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Holstein Kiel | E. Braunschweig | Free / loan | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Hansa Rostock | Holstein Kiel | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Holstein Kiel | Hansa Rostock | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FSV Zwickau | Holstein Kiel | €250k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rot-Weiß Erfurt | FSV Zwickau | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RW Erfurt U19 | Rot-Weiß Erfurt | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RW Erfurt U17 | RW Erfurt U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | RW Erfurt Yth. | RW Erfurt U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.