Carlos Mané

32 yrs · Right winger (also LW) · Guinea-Bissau
Kayserispor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 173 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€600k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€141k – €596k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€201k – €485k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€216k – €531k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€395k – €344k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€141k – €596k
Model value (performance-implied)€201k – €485k
Projected value (24 months)€216k – €531k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Carlos Mané's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (1044 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 66

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average13.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €316k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationVery low-39% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1044 (34% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.28
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
13 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1147
Opponent strength
1284
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€216k – €531k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength down (-78 Elo); role change LW -> RW; relative output down 27% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -50% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1044 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KayserisporSuper LigRW22104434%010.090.28128411470.40
2024/25KayserisporSuper LigLW30161250%320.280.41129312250.39
2023/24KayserisporSuper LigLW25113333%520.560.55129412080.45
2022/23KayserisporSuper LigLW25147245%450.550.49129712550.50
2021/22KayserisporSuper LigRW29101530%200.180.29123312160.42
2020/21Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalRW32236777%620.300.36134413200.61
2019/20Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalRW31150649%160.420.40136214120.59
2018/19Sporting CPLiga PortugalRW2171%000.000.26136516340.65
2016/17Sporting CPLiga PortugalLW2110%000.000.27134015210.58
2015/16Sporting CPLiga PortugalLW1135212%141.280.37130216080.58
2014/15Sporting CPLiga PortugalLW29135044%640.670.40134915930.68
2013/14Sporting CPLiga PortugalLW1885332%240.630.43143115660.74

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingRio Ave FC3319031461
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueSporting CP3159001370
2016/17Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart19000—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueSporting CP6460021511
2015/16Supercup Candido De OliveiraSporting CP120001719
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingSporting CP215001671
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueSporting CP4187101562
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueSporting CP233001701

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sasa Kajkut
Super League 1 · 2016
32€300k€100kfell
Yannick Bolasie
Super Lig · 2022
33€500k€250kfell
Sidney Sam
Super Lig · 2021
33€625k€625kflat
Mike van Duinen
Super League 1 · 2022
31€300k€200kfell
Kevin Lasagna
Super Lig · 2024
32€950k€950kflat
Fotis Georgiou
Super League 1 · 2018
33€200k€200kflat
Ángelo Sagal
Super Lig · 2023
30€900k€450kfell
Mathieu Gomes
Super League 1 · 2018
33€300k€300kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
13 Aug 2021Rio AveKayserispor€1.0M€1.5M
21 Jul 2019SportingRio Ave€1.0M€1.8M
30 Jun 2019Union BerlinSportingFree / loan€1.8M
25 Jan 2019SportingUnion BerlinFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2018StuttgartSportingFree / loan€3.0M
31 Aug 2016SportingStuttgartFree / loan€4.5M
1 Jan 2014Sporting BSportingUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Sporting U19Sporting BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Sporting Sub-15Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Sporting Yth.Sporting Sub-15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.