
Carlos Mané
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Mané's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (1044 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €316k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1044 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1147
- Opponent strength
- 1284
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €216k – €531k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength down (-78 Elo); role change LW -> RW; relative output down 27% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1044 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RW | 22 | 1044 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 1284 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LW | 30 | 1612 | 50% | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.41 | 1293 | 1225 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LW | 25 | 1133 | 33% | 5 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 1294 | 1208 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LW | 25 | 1472 | 45% | 4 | 5 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 1297 | 1255 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RW | 29 | 1015 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 1233 | 1216 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 32 | 2367 | 77% | 6 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 1344 | 1320 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 31 | 1506 | 49% | 1 | 6 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 1362 | 1412 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 2 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1365 | 1634 | 0.65 |
| 2016/17 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 2 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1340 | 1521 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 11 | 352 | 12% | 1 | 4 | 1.28 | 0.37 | 1302 | 1608 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 29 | 1350 | 44% | 6 | 4 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 1349 | 1593 | 0.68 |
| 2013/14 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 18 | 853 | 32% | 2 | 4 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 1431 | 1566 | 0.74 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rio Ave FC | 3 | 319 | 0 | 3 | 1461 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 3 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 1370 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 6 | 460 | 0 | 2 | 1511 |
| 2015/16 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1719 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 4 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 1562 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasa Kajkut Super League 1 · 2016 | 32 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Yannick Bolasie Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Sidney Sam Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €625k | €625k | flat |
| Mike van Duinen Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Kevin Lasagna Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €950k | €950k | flat |
| Fotis Georgiou Super League 1 · 2018 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Ángelo Sagal Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €900k | €450k | fell |
| Mathieu Gomes Super League 1 · 2018 | 33 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2021 | Rio Ave | Kayserispor | €1.0M | €1.5M |
| 21 Jul 2019 | Sporting | Rio Ave | €1.0M | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Union Berlin | Sporting | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 25 Jan 2019 | Sporting | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Stuttgart | Sporting | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Sporting | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.