Jordan Larsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jordan Larsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1543 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1543 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1359
- Opponent strength
- 1261
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -45% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1543 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | RW | 22 | 1543 | 78% | 6 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.32 | 1261 | 1359 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | RW | 9 | 561 | 28% | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.24 | 1265 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | ST | 16 | 598 | 30% | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.30 | 1238 | 1517 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | RW | 11 | 461 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1569 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | ST | 5 | 191 | 10% | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 1248 | 1492 | 0.47 |
| 2020/21 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 2522 | 93% | 15 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 1346 | 1420 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 1618 | 60% | 7 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 1406 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RW | 8 | 407 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.42 | 1358 | 1223 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 540 | 3 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 389 | 0 | 1 | 1399 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 238 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 5 | 281 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 1335 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 458 | 3 | 1 | 1460 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 5 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 311 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 283 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | IFK Norrköping | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1239 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aboubakar Kamara Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Eljero Elia Eredivisie · 2016 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| François Kamano Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Dimitrios Pelkas Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Colin Kazim-Richards Eredivisie · 2015 | 29 | €2.3M | €1.8M | fell |
| Stefano Napoleoni Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Marcus Ingvartsen Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Mostapha El Kabir Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €3.5M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Schalke 04 | Copenhagen | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Copenhagen | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 28 Jan 2023 | FC Schalke 04 | Copenhagen | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 5 Aug 2022 | Spartak Moscow | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | AIK | Spartak Moscow | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 4 Apr 2022 | Spartak Moscow | AIK | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Norrköping | Spartak Moscow | €4.0M | €800k |
| 2 Jan 2018 | NEC Nijmegen | Norrköping | €500k | €400k |
| 2 Jan 2017 | Helsingborgs IF | NEC Nijmegen | €450k | €500k |
| 24 Jul 2014 | Högaborgs BK | Helsingborgs IF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Högaborg Jugend | Högaborgs BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Barça Youth | Högaborg Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.