Kaj Sierhuis

28 yrs · Striker · Netherlands
Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€681k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€722k – €1.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€748k – €1.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.1M – €1.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€681k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€722k – €1.7M
Projected value (24 months)€748k – €1.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kaj Sierhuis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (1999 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 59

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average31.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.2M vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1999 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.63
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.65
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
32 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1175
Opponent strength
1313
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€748k – €1.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -37% to +46%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (ATT)
Relative output kept
73%–122%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
61%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieST30199965%1220.630.65131311750.43
2024/25Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieST1153217%110.340.63133012110.50
2023/24Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieST31219472%1240.660.69133711900.48
2022/23Stade ReimsLigue 1ST142076%000.000.33134814250.82
2021/22Heracles AlmeloEredivisieST18143347%430.440.56135112500.60
2021/22Stade ReimsLigue 1ST2802%000.000.52140214170.86
2020/21Stade ReimsLigue 1ST2464019%010.140.35139413730.75
2019/20FC GroningenEredivisieST16104545%630.780.66136013450.62
2019/20Stade ReimsLigue 1ST1131%000.000.55145814510.82
2018/19FC GroningenEredivisieST17118739%300.230.31133813560.61
2018/19Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieST2823%000.000.22129617460.61

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie210310—
2023/24Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie433230—
2021/22Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo14500—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingStade Reims282001461
2019/20Knvb BekerFC Groningen216101—
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam13001348

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Pedro Henrique
Super Lig · 2020
30€1.2M€2.0Mrose
Yusuf Erdoğan
Super Lig · 2021
29€1.8M€475kfell
Joel Pohjanpalo
Super Lig · 2022
28€2.5M€3.5Mrose
Dalibor Veselinovic
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
27€900k€700kfell
Levan Shengelia
Super League 1 · 2023
28€750k€750kflat
Faïz Selemani
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
28€1.4M€2.5Mrose
Olarenwaju Kayode
Super Lig · 2020
27€2.4M€3.2Mrose
Karol Angielski
Super League 1 · 2024
28€1.2M€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Fortuna SittardWithout ClubUnknown€1.8M
2 Aug 2023Stade ReimsFortuna Sittard€500k€1.2M
30 Jun 2022Heracles AlmeloStade ReimsFree / loan€2.3M
31 Aug 2021Stade ReimsHeracles AlmeloFree / loan€3.0M
31 Jan 2020Ajax U21Stade Reims€4.0M€1.0M
30 Jan 2020FC GroningenAjax U21Free / loan€1.0M
1 Jan 2019Ajax U21FC GroningenFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2017Ajax U19Ajax U21Unknown€200k
1 Jul 2015Ajax U17Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009WSV '30 Yth.Ajax YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.