
Kaj Sierhuis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kaj Sierhuis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (1999 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1999 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.65
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1313
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €748k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -37% to +46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | ST | 30 | 1999 | 65% | 12 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 1313 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | ST | 11 | 532 | 17% | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 1330 | 1211 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | ST | 31 | 2194 | 72% | 12 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 1337 | 1190 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | ST | 14 | 207 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1348 | 1425 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | ST | 18 | 1433 | 47% | 4 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 1351 | 1250 | 0.60 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 80 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1402 | 1417 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | ST | 24 | 640 | 19% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.35 | 1394 | 1373 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 16 | 1045 | 45% | 6 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.66 | 1360 | 1345 | 0.62 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 13 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1458 | 1451 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 17 | 1187 | 39% | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 1338 | 1356 | 0.61 |
| 2018/19 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 2 | 82 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1296 | 1746 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 103 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 4 | 332 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Stade Reims | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 161 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1348 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Henrique Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Yusuf Erdoğan Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.8M | €475k | fell |
| Joel Pohjanpalo Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Dalibor Veselinovic Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Levan Shengelia Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Faïz Selemani Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €1.4M | €2.5M | rose |
| Olarenwaju Kayode Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €2.4M | €3.2M | rose |
| Karol Angielski Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Fortuna Sittard | Without Club | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 2 Aug 2023 | Stade Reims | Fortuna Sittard | €500k | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Heracles Almelo | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Stade Reims | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Ajax U21 | Stade Reims | €4.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jan 2020 | FC Groningen | Ajax U21 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Ajax U21 | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | WSV '30 Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.