Aleksandr Rudenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandr Rudenko's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (2069 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2069 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1418
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts; changed club; team strength up (+214 Elo); role change RW -> LW; relative output down 43% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -73% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LW | 28 | 2069 | 77% | 7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 1335 | 1418 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | RW | 29 | 1404 | 52% | 6 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 1298 | 1204 | 0.55 |
| 2022/23 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | ST | 25 | 1627 | 60% | 4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.45 | 1323 | 1151 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | ST | 11 | 699 | 26% | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.48 | 1363 | 1273 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | ST | 20 | 675 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 1285 | 1396 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 10 | 504 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 6 | 278 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 4 | 254 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | Torpedo Moscow | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massimo Bruno Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 27 | €2.0M | €525k | fell |
| Ricardo Valente Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Maxime Lestienne Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 28 | €4.0M | €900k | fell |
| Oleksiy Antonov Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danilo Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Mike Havenaar Eredivisie · 2014 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| François Kamano Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Paul-José Mpoku Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.2M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Khimki | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Spartak 2 | Khimki | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FK Sochi | Spartak 2 | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Spartak 2 | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Torpedo Moskau | Spartak 2 | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Spartak 2 | Torpedo Moskau | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €175k |
| 28 Aug 2015 | Akademia FCSM | Spartak II | Unknown | €175k |
| 24 Aug 2012 | V. Ponedelnik | Akademia FCSM | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.