Martin Kramaric
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martin Kramaric's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1380 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €409k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1380 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1377
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €330k – €643k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -69% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1380 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RW | 19 | 1380 | 51% | 4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.40 | 1377 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | AM | 22 | 1827 | 68% | 5 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 1341 | 1222 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 194 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 5 | 259 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Verhaar Eredivisie · 2017 | 29 | €650k | €250k | fell |
| Furdjel Narsingh Eredivisie · 2016 | 28 | €450k | €150k | fell |
| Miguel Rosa Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €1.3M | €250k | fell |
| Sinan Bakış Eredivisie · 2022 | 28 | €600k | €2.0M | rose |
| Evans Kangwa Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Tonni Adamsen Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €900k | €1.5M | rose |
| Oussama Darfalou Eredivisie · 2022 | 29 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Wágner Liga Portugal · 2017 | 30 | €500k | €125k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | NK Bravo | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €500k |
| 24 Sept 2020 | NK Maribor | NK Bravo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | NK Bravo | NK Maribor | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Jan 2020 | NK Maribor | NK Bravo | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 May 2017 | NK Krsko | NK Maribor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 11 Jan 2016 | NK Maribor U19 | NK Krsko | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2014 | NK Krka | NK Maribor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | NK Krka U19 | NK Krka | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.