Sven Karic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sven Karic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €485k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2562 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1355
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €510k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -43% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 29 | 2562 | 95% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1355 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1773 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1310 | 1181 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 245 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | NK Maribor | 4 | 372 | 0 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | NK Maribor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1411 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Van den Buijs Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Syam Ben Youssef Super Lig · 2019 | 30 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Stefano Marzo Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €900k | €550k | fell |
| Gökhan Sazdağı Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Jadson Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Konstantinos Giannoulis Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Pavlo Pashayev Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €700k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2024 | NK Maribor | Pari NN | €600k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | NK Domzale | NK Maribor | €150k | €600k |
| 5 Jul 2019 | Derby U23 | NK Domzale | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2017 | NK Maribor U19 | Derby U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.