Felix Beijmo

28 yrs · Centre-back (also RM) · Sweden
Aarhus GF · Superliga · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€723k – €3.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€686k – €2.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.6M – €3.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.1M – €1.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€723k – €3.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€686k – €2.6M
Projected value (24 months)€1.6M – €3.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Felix Beijmo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 74

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage45.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.0M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationLow-16% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1888 (95% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.24
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
45 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1441
Opponent strength
1256
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.6M – €3.7M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); role change RM -> CB; relative output up 126% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -31% to -20%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
24 (DEF)
Relative output kept
60%–139%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
71%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aarhus GFSuperligaCB22188895%230.240.14125614410.47
2024/25Aarhus GFSuperligaRM21170786%130.210.18129213290.38
2023/24Aarhus GFSuperligaRM21178590%040.200.17129713560.48
2022/23Aarhus GFSuperligaRM543422%000.000.16123913310.47

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Oddset PokalenAarhus GF654010—
2024/25Oddset PokalenAarhus GF319900—
2023/24Oddset PokalenAarhus GF647920—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAarhus GF2146101493
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueMalmö Fotbollförening6506011548
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingMalmö Fotbollförening4360011292
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingMalmö Fotbollförening4265111313

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Laurent Ciman
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
29€3.2M€2.5Mfell
Erik Sviatchenko
Superliga · 2021
30€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Johan Larsson
Superliga · 2018
28€1.8M€800kfell
Filip Novak
Super Lig · 2019
29€2.8M€2.0Mfell
Jelle Van Damme
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
31€2.5M€1.5Mfell
Guillaume Gillet
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
30€2.5M€2.0Mfell
Casper Højer
Superliga · 2021
27€2.5M€2.0Mfell
Eric Botteghin
Eredivisie · 2015
28€3.0M€7.5Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Aarhus GFCopenhagenFree / loan€3.0M
1 Jul 2023MalmöAarhus GF€269k€1.0M
30 Jun 2023Aarhus GFMalmöFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jan 2023MalmöAarhus GFFree / loan€1.2M
12 Aug 2020Werder BremenMalmöUnknown€1.0M
30 Jun 2020Greuther FürthWerder BremenFree / loan€1.0M
31 Jan 2020Werder BremenGreuther FürthFree / loan€1.2M
31 Dec 2019MalmöWerder BremenFree / loan€1.2M
13 Aug 2019Werder BremenMalmöFree / loan€1.3M
1 Jul 2018DjurgårdenWerder Bremen€3.0M€1.0M
30 Mar 2017BrommapojkarnaDjurgårdenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2015IF Bromma U19BrommapojkarnaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2014IF Bromma U17IF Bromma U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Felix Beijmo · MoneyballAI