Joël Schmied
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joël Schmied's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1080 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -70% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1080 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 1080 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1493 | 1347 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Großkreutz Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €700k | fell |
| Abdelhamid El Kaoutari Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Mitchell Dijks Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Bernardo Espinosa Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Reto Ziegler Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2020 | 28 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
| Alejandro González Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2025 | FC Sion | 1.FC Köln | €2.5M | €2.0M |
| 23 Aug 2021 | FC Vaduz | FC Sion | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 21 Aug 2020 | Young Boys | FC Vaduz | Unknown | €400k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | FC Wil 1900 | Young Boys | Free / loan | €400k |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Young Boys | FC Wil 1900 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | BSC YB U21 | Young Boys | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Rapperswil-Jona | BSC YB U21 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 23 Nov 2018 | BSC YB U21 | Rapperswil-Jona | Free / loan | €25k |
| 21 Nov 2018 | FC Breitenrain | BSC YB U21 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | BSC YB U21 | FC Breitenrain | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | BSC YB U18 | BSC YB U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | BSC YB U16 | BSC YB U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.