Thalisson

28 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Brazil
Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€177k – €565k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€295k – €631k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€358k – €737k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€270k – €454k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€177k – €565k
Model value (performance-implied)€295k – €631k
Projected value (24 months)€358k – €737k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Thalisson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 91

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average14.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €235k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2529 (83% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1161
Opponent strength
1278
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€358k – €737k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change CB -> LB.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -47% to -8%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigLB29252983%200.070.16127811600.40
2024/25AntalyasporSuper LigCB33268783%200.070.07129611810.39

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Praxitelis Vouros
Super League 1 · 2023
28€700k€600kflat
Franco Romero
Super League 1 · 2022
27€500k€300kfell
Nikolaos Vafeas
Super League 1 · 2024
27€400k€400kflat
Julian Lelieveld
Eredivisie · 2024
27€850k€400kfell
Simon Piesinger
Superliga · 2020
28€400k€400kflat
Nikolaos Korovesis
Super League 1 · 2021
30€450k€250kfell
Jordan McGhee
Scottish Premiership · 2024
28€350k€100kfell
Epaminondas Pantelakis
Super League 1 · 2024
29€450k€400kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jul 2025AntalyasporGenclerbirligiUnknown€700k
17 Jul 2024U ClujAntalyaspor€280k€500k
1 Jan 2024Mirassol-SPU ClujFree / loan€250k
31 Dec 2022JuventudeMirassol-SPFree / loan€250k
30 Mar 2022Mirassol-SPJuventudeFree / loan€100k
4 Jan 2022EC VitóriaMirassol-SPFree / loan€100k
17 Jun 2021Coritiba FCEC VitóriaFree / loan€75k
31 May 2021Inter LimeiraCoritiba FCFree / loan€75k
19 Feb 2021Coritiba FCInter LimeiraFree / loan€75k
31 Jan 2021CRBCoritiba FCFree / loan€50k
14 Jan 2020Coritiba FCCRBFree / loan€50k
24 Jul 2019GuaraniCoritiba FCFree / loan€50k
7 Jan 2019Coritiba FCGuaraniFree / loan€50k

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.