Mahdi Camara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mahdi Camara's performance-implied value at EUR 7.7M-18.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-13.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-12.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (2661 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.8M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2661 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1465
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.4M – €12.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -31% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2661 | 87% | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 1465 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 34 | 2670 | 87% | 5 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 1445 | 1472 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2038 | 67% | 7 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1478 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 1826 | 53% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 1441 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CM | 35 | 3076 | 90% | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 1444 | 1321 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CM | 37 | 3295 | 96% | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1435 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | DM | 12 | 900 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1456 | 1383 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1393 | 1519 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 711 | 1 | 1 | 1662 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | AS Saint-Étienne | 2 | 125 | 1 | 0 | 1500 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin André Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Valbuena Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €15.0M | €11.5M | fell |
| Radja Nainggolan Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Denis Glushakov Premier Liga · 2013 | 26 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Remo Freuler Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Fernando Belluschi Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €6.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Hugo Viana Liga Portugal · 2013 | 30 | €8.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Senad Lulic Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €10.0M | €14.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Stade Brestois | Stade Rennais | €8.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Saint-Étienne | Stade Brestois | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Stade Brestois | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 26 Aug 2022 | Saint-Étienne | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Stade Lavallois | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €300k |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Saint-Étienne | Stade Lavallois | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Saint-Étienne B | Saint-Étienne | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | St-Étienne U19 | Saint-Étienne B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | St-Étienne U17 | St-Étienne U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | ASSE Yth. | St-Étienne U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.