Jérémy Livolant
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jérémy Livolant's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (2780 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2780 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -62% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 2780 | 91% | 3 | 8 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 1322 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | RW | 26 | 1811 | 59% | 4 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 1354 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2015/16 | EA Guingamp | Ligue 1 | LW | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1417 | 1385 | 0.78 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steeven Langil Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 28 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
| Héctor Hernández Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Youness Mokhtar Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Michiel Kramer Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Oleksandr Gladkyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Jean-Luc Dompé Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Gianni Bruno Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 29 | €1.6M | €1.3M | flat |
| Vladimir Iljin Premier Liga · 2021 | 29 | €2.2M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sept 2024 | Without Club | Casa Pia | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 31 Jul 2024 | G. Bordeaux | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Guingamp | G. Bordeaux | €1.3M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Sochaux | Guingamp | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Jul 2019 | Guingamp | FC Sochaux | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | LB Châteauroux | Guingamp | Free / loan | €400k |
| 2 Aug 2018 | Guingamp | LB Châteauroux | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | US Boulogne | Guingamp | Free / loan | €150k |
| 24 Jul 2017 | Guingamp | US Boulogne | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | EA Guingamp B | Guingamp | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | EA Guingamp U17 | EA Guingamp B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Guingamp Jgd. | EA Guingamp U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.