
Ahmed Touba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ahmed Touba's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1652 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1465
- Opponent strength
- 1219
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+116 Elo); league level down (-94 Elo); relative output down 73% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -55% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1652 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | CB | 19 | 1652 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1219 | 1465 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1997 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1358 | 1350 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 6 | 275 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1547 | 1359 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | LB | 1 | 57 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1261 | 1397 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CB | 24 | 1865 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1280 | 1395 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CB | 28 | 2491 | 81% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1371 | 1260 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2877 | 94% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1367 | 1178 | 0.56 |
| 2017/18 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 2 | 49 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1232 | 1527 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 10 | 843 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 3 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 1334 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1518 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Davies Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jack Hendry Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Niklas Hult Super League 1 · 2019 | 29 | €1.3M | €700k | fell |
| Vasilios Lampropoulos Super League 1 · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Steve Colpaert Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Edson Braafheid Eredivisie · 2013 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vítor Tormena Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €5.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Andreas Bjelland Superliga · 2019 | 31 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Basaksehir | Panathinaikos | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | KV Mechelen | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 4 Sept 2024 | Basaksehir | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Lecce | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 27 Aug 2023 | Basaksehir | Lecce | Free / loan | €3.3M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | RKC Waalwijk | Basaksehir | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| 29 Aug 2020 | Club Brugge | RKC Waalwijk | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Beroe | Club Brugge | Free / loan | €300k |
| 27 Aug 2019 | Club Brugge | Beroe | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | OH Leuven | Club Brugge | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Club Brugge | OH Leuven | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Brügge U21 | Club Brugge | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Brügge U17 | FC Brügge U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Zulte W. Youth | FC Brügge U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.