Ahmed Touba

28 yrs · Centre-back (also LB, LM) · Algeria
Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos · Super League 1 · Foot: left · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€718k – €2.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €3.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.0M – €2.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.8M – €2.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€718k – €2.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €3.5M
Projected value (24 months)€1.0M – €2.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ahmed Touba's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 68

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average59.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.6M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.3M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1652 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.02
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
59 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1465
Opponent strength
1219
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.0M – €2.7M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+116 Elo); league level down (-94 Elo); relative output down 73% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -55% to -37%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1652 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1CB19165271%000.000.02121914650.43
2024/25KV MechelenJupiler Pro LeagueCB23199774%200.090.08135813500.63
2023/24US LecceSerie ACB62758%000.000.08154713590.98
2023/24Basaksehir FKSuper LigLB1572%000.000.10126113970.45
2022/23Basaksehir FKSuper LigCB24186558%000.000.02128013950.50
2021/22RKC WaalwijkEredivisieCB28249181%010.040.06137112600.60
2020/21RKC WaalwijkEredivisieCB32287794%310.130.14136711780.56
2017/18Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueLM2492%000.000.14123215270.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos10843001457
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos4390001368
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2180001461
2025/26Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos218001—
2023/24Italy CupUS Lecce19000—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingBasaksehir FK3111101334
2021/22Knvb BekerRKC Waalwijk19000—
2020/21Knvb BekerRKC Waalwijk15900—
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingClub Brugge KV2102001518

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ben Davies
Scottish Premiership · 2023
28€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Jack Hendry
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
27€5.0M€3.0Mfell
Niklas Hult
Super League 1 · 2019
29€1.3M€700kfell
Vasilios Lampropoulos
Super League 1 · 2018
28€1.0M€400kfell
Steve Colpaert
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
28€1.5M€700kfell
Edson Braafheid
Eredivisie · 2013
30€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Vítor Tormena
Premier Liga · 2024
28€5.5M€8.0Mrose
Andreas Bjelland
Superliga · 2019
31€2.0M€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025BasaksehirPanathinaikos€1.0M€2.5M
30 Jun 2025KV MechelenBasaksehirFree / loan€2.5M
4 Sept 2024BasaksehirKV MechelenFree / loan€1.6M
30 Jun 2024LecceBasaksehirFree / loan€1.6M
27 Aug 2023BasaksehirLecceFree / loan€3.3M
1 Jul 2022RKC WaalwijkBasaksehir€2.0M€1.0M
29 Aug 2020Club BruggeRKC WaalwijkUnknown€300k
30 Jun 2020BeroeClub BruggeFree / loan€300k
27 Aug 2019Club BruggeBeroeFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2019OH LeuvenClub BruggeFree / loan€300k
31 Aug 2018Club BruggeOH LeuvenFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2017FC Brügge U21Club BruggeUnknown€600k
1 Jul 2015FC Brügge U17FC Brügge U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Zulte W. YouthFC Brügge U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.