
Vítor Tormena
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vítor Tormena's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-10.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-5.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.3M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2370 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1536
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €5.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -51% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2370 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1337 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 2051 | 76% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1292 | 1511 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1963 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1344 | 1405 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2345 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1401 | 1557 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 25 | 1859 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1394 | 1514 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 25 | 1913 | 63% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1349 | 1493 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1372 | 1522 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 26 | 2182 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 1399 | 1292 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 9 | 522 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 3 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1491 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 4 | 190 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 7 | 612 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SC Braga | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 6 | 451 | 1 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 3 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1451 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Mechele Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 30 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Yaroslav Rakitskyi Premier Liga · 2020 | 31 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Gökhan Gönül Super Lig · 2015 | 30 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Papa Gueye Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sebastián Coates Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Douglas Santos Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €12.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Fernando Varela Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Paulo Oliveira Liga Portugal · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2023 | Braga | Krasnodar | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Gil Vicente | Braga | €1.3M | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Portimonense | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jul 2018 | Gil Vicente | Portimonense | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | São Paulo U20 | Gil Vicente | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Novorizontino | São Paulo U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jan 2017 | São Paulo U20 | Novorizontino | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | São Paulo For. | São Paulo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.