Efkan Bekiroğlu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Efkan Bekiroğlu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.09x the positional average in the league (1066 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €295k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1066 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1294
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €339k – €825k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+97 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -45% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1066 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Göztepe | Super Lig | AM | 25 | 1066 | 35% | 3 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 1294 | 1281 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | AM | 14 | 1067 | 33% | 2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 1284 | 1183 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | AM | 30 | 2141 | 63% | 9 | 6 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 1296 | 1218 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | AM | 25 | 1426 | 44% | 4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 1301 | 1261 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 31 | 1505 | 44% | 3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1236 | 1322 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 23 | 793 | 22% | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 1228 | 1260 | 0.37 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Merkel Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Bryan Dabo Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Robin Yalçın Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Oliver Bozanic Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 30 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Nico Fernández Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Erhun Öztümer Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Paul-José Mpoku Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Dragan Paljic Eredivisie · 2013 | 30 | €700k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2025 | Ankaragücü | Göztepe | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sivasspor | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Ankaragücü | Sivasspor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Alanyaspor | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 5 Aug 2020 | 1860 Munich | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Augsburg II | 1860 Munich | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Unterföhring | FC Augsburg II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Phönix München | FC Unterföhring | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | SC FFB U19 | Phönix München | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.