Derek Cornelius
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Derek Cornelius's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 62th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 617 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1434
- Opponent strength
- 1164
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €765k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; team strength down (-123 Elo); league level down (-229 Elo); relative output up 376% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -34% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 617 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 7 | 560 | 19% | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 1164 | 1427 | 0.31 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 2 | 57 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1581 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1423 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1416 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | CB | 13 | 1170 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1252 | 1164 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | CB | 23 | 1952 | 83% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1263 | 1164 | 0.39 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Canada | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 3 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazım Sangaré Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.7M | €300k | fell |
| Milad Mohammadi Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €1.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Uros Spajic Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €2.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Rodrigo Moledo Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Filip Benkovic Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Dmytro Chygrynskyi Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Tomasz Kędziora Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Borna Barisic Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 27 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Rangers | Marseille | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Marseille | Rangers | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 4 Aug 2024 | Malmö | Marseille | €4.0M | €2.8M |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Vancouver | Malmö | €458k | €800k |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Panetolikos | Vancouver | Free / loan | €800k |
| 12 Jul 2021 | Vancouver | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 18 Jan 2019 | Javor-Matis | Vancouver | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | VfR Neumünster | Javor-Matis | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jul 2016 | VfB Lübeck | VfR Neumünster | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | VfB Lübeck U19 | VfB Lübeck | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Unionville | VfB Lübeck U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Spartacus SC | Unionville | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.