Lucas Boyé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Boyé's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-9.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (1959 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1959 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.60
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -74% to -55%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 29 | 1959 | 57% | 11 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 1492 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Granada CF | Laliga | ST | 31 | 2556 | 75% | 6 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.54 | 1496 | 1315 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Elche CF | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2472 | 72% | 7 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 1505 | 1353 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Elche CF | Laliga | ST | 24 | 1724 | 50% | 7 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 1545 | 1421 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Elche CF | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2709 | 79% | 7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.47 | 1563 | 1411 | 1.10 |
| 2018/19 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | ST | 23 | 1153 | 43% | 6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 1259 | 1442 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 13 | 267 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1590 | 1523 | 1.11 |
| 2017/18 | Torino FC | Serie A | ST | 11 | 141 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 1505 | 1481 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Torino FC | Serie A | ST | 30 | 1446 | 42% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 1466 | 1467 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 2 | 108 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 2 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 9 | 333 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 3 | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 3 | 163 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Cassano Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pablo de Blasis Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Dominick Drexler Bundesliga · 2020 | 30 | €3.2M | €900k | fell |
| Romain Hamouma Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Roger Martí Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Martin Harnik Bundesliga · 2018 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Antonio Puertas Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sergi Guardiola Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2025 | Granada CF | Alavés | €5.8M | €3.5M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | Elche CF | Granada CF | €8.7M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Torino | Elche CF | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Elche CF | Torino | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 21 Sept 2020 | Torino | Elche CF | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Reading | Torino | Free / loan | €950k |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Torino | Reading | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | AEK Athens | Torino | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 18 Jul 2018 | Torino | AEK Athens | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Celta de Vigo | Torino | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Torino | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | River Plate | Torino | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Newell's | River Plate | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 8 Sept 2015 | River Plate | Newell's | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | River Plate U20 | River Plate | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.