Linton Maina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Linton Maina's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (1020 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1020 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -62% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1020 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RW | 24 | 1020 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 1502 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LW | 31 | 1907 | 62% | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 1500 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RW | 33 | 2260 | 74% | 3 | 8 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 1539 | 1476 | 1.04 |
| 2018/19 | Hannover 96 | Bundesliga | LM | 20 | 1425 | 47% | 1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 1531 | 1326 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hannover 96 | Bundesliga | AM | 2 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 1 | 2.90 | 0.68 | 1570 | 1397 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hannover 96 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ezequiel Ponce Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Sansone Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Federico Bonazzoli Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Bilal Boutobba Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sebastián Leto Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Luca Siligardi Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €2.8M | €900k | fell |
| Barreto Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €1.9M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hannover 96 | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hannover 96 U19 | Hannover 96 | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hannover 96 U17 | Hannover 96 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | SV Empor Yth. | Hannover 96 U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Pfefferw. Yth. | SV Empor Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.