Manu Morlanes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Manu Morlanes's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-6.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1775 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.4M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1775 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 87% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -23% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1775 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 32 | 1775 | 52% | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 1490 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 23 | 1340 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1500 | 1415 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 35 | 1610 | 47% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1487 | 1436 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 12 | 714 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 1516 | 1430 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | DM | 4 | 158 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1545 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1137 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 1510 | 1416 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 9 | 251 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 1608 | 1610 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 9 | 525 | 15% | 0 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 1539 | 1569 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | CD Leganés | Laliga | CM | 1 | 88 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1544 | 1481 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1819 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 6 | 309 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 231 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1419 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Villarreal CF | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 4 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 4 | 225 | 1 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1548 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Rémi Oudin Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Unai López Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Fernando Tissone Laliga · 2013 | 27 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Amir Abrashi Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Jonathan Schmid Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Graham Dorrans Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Albin Ekdal Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Villarreal | RCD Mallorca | €2.5M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | RCD Mallorca | Villarreal | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Villarreal | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Espanyol | Villarreal | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 16 Aug 2021 | Villarreal | Espanyol | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 7 Jul 2021 | UD Almería | Villarreal | €4.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Villarreal | UD Almería | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | UD Almería | Villarreal | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 7 Sept 2020 | Villarreal | UD Almería | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Villarreal CF B | Villarreal | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Villarreal U19 | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Zaragoza Youth | Villarreal Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.