Unai López

30 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, RW) · Spain
Rayo Vallecano · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 170 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€968k – €2.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.3M – €7.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€772k – €2.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€333k – €6.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€968k – €2.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.3M – €7.8M
Projected value (24 months)€772k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Unai López's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-7.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1619 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 48

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average72.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.4M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1619 (47% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.22
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.24
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
73 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1518
Opponent strength
1470
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€772k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -65% to -17%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1619 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Rayo VallecanoLaligaCM28161947%040.220.24147015180.95
2024/25Rayo VallecanoLaligaCM32171950%310.210.28149814400.95
2023/24Rayo VallecanoLaligaCM34208861%120.130.21149314011.00
2022/23Rayo VallecanoLaligaCM34124136%120.220.28152413980.98
2021/22Rayo VallecanoLaligaCM27115634%000.000.13155313891.05
2020/21Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM26142542%300.190.20150215411.10
2019/20Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM26180353%140.250.24154315431.16
2018/19Athletic BilbaoLaligaAM62949%000.000.26146615401.14
2016/17CD LeganésLaligaRW23116634%200.150.39161714031.11
2014/15Athletic BilbaoLaligaCM1983324%000.000.13163316111.18

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingRayo Vallecano2116011287
2025/26Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano28000—
2024/25Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano25100—
2023/24Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano421301—
2022/23Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano28000—
2021/22Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano314101—
2020/21Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao531500—
2019/20Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao417300—
2018/19Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao16500—
2016/17Copa Del ReyCD Leganés19000—
2014/15Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao18400—
2014/15Uefa Champions League QualifyingAthletic Bilbao118001648
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueAthletic Bilbao217001428
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueAthletic Bilbao111001522

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jae-sung Lee
Bundesliga · 2022
30€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Mërgim Vojvoda
Serie A · 2024
29€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Kim Källström
Premier Liga · 2013
31€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Silvan Widmer
Bundesliga · 2024
31€3.0M€800kfell
Leonardo Bittencourt
Bundesliga · 2024
31€2.5M€900kfell
Alanzinho
Super Lig · 2013
30€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Joey Barton
Ligue 1 · 2013
31€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Kerem Seras
Super Lig · 2013
29€1.7M€1.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Athletic ClubRayo VallecanoFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2022Rayo VallecanoAthletic ClubFree / loan€4.0M
31 Aug 2021Athletic ClubRayo VallecanoFree / loan€12.0M
30 Jun 2018Rayo VallecanoAthletic ClubFree / loan€2.0M
1 Aug 2017Athletic ClubRayo VallecanoFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2017CD LeganésAthletic ClubFree / loan€2.0M
26 Jul 2016Athletic ClubCD LeganésFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2016Bilbao AthleticAthletic ClubUnknown€1.8M
1 Jul 2015Athletic ClubBilbao AthleticUnknown€2.0M
1 Jul 2014Bilbao AthleticAthletic ClubUnknown€200k
1 Jul 2013Bilbao U19Bilbao AthleticUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Bilbao U18Bilbao U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Real Sociedad YBilbao U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Antiguoko YthReal Sociedad YUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.