
Unai López
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Unai López's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-7.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1619 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1619 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1470
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €772k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -65% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1619 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 28 | 1619 | 47% | 0 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 1470 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 32 | 1719 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 1498 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2088 | 61% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 1493 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 34 | 1241 | 36% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 1524 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1156 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1553 | 1389 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 26 | 1425 | 42% | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 1502 | 1541 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 26 | 1803 | 53% | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 1543 | 1543 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | AM | 6 | 294 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1466 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2016/17 | CD Leganés | Laliga | RW | 23 | 1166 | 34% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 1617 | 1403 | 1.11 |
| 2014/15 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 19 | 833 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1633 | 1611 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 116 | 0 | 1 | 1287 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 213 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 141 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | CD Leganés | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1428 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae-sung Lee Bundesliga · 2022 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Kim Källström Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Silvan Widmer Bundesliga · 2024 | 31 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Bundesliga · 2024 | 31 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Alanzinho Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Joey Barton Ligue 1 · 2013 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Kerem Seras Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €1.7M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | CD Leganés | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 26 Jul 2016 | Athletic Club | CD Leganés | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Athletic Club | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bilbao U19 | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bilbao U18 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Real Sociedad Y | Bilbao U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Antiguoko Yth | Real Sociedad Y | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.