Ermedin Demirovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ermedin Demirovic's performance-implied value at EUR 10.5M-24.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.9M-26.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.7M-15.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (1498 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.0M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1498 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.96
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1431
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.7M – €15.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -61% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1498 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 25 | 1498 | 49% | 12 | 4 | 0.96 | 0.57 | 1431 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 1855 | 61% | 15 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 1471 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 2884 | 94% | 15 | 10 | 0.78 | 0.87 | 1530 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 30 | 2381 | 78% | 8 | 6 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 1517 | 1378 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 858 | 28% | 2 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 1509 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 1507 | 49% | 5 | 10 | 0.90 | 0.75 | 1551 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2017/18 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 3 | 181 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.60 | 1493 | 1501 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 547 | 1 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 219 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 404 | 1 | 0 | 1591 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 383 | 1 | 4 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 128 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 6 | 267 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 38 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 191 | 3 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Dries Mertens Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €18.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Saïd Benrahma Ligue 1 · 2024 | 29 | €20.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Álex Berenguer Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Karl Toko Ekambi Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €14.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Andriy Yarmolenko Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €23.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Giampaolo Pazzini Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €14.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Kevin Mirallas Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2024 | Augsburg | Stuttgart | €23.0M | €28.0M |
| 8 Jul 2022 | Freiburg | Augsburg | €2.3M | €6.0M |
| 5 Aug 2020 | Alavés | Freiburg | €3.7M | €3.0M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | FC St. Gallen | Alavés | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Alavés | FC St. Gallen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | UD Almería | Alavés | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 17 Jan 2019 | Alavés | UD Almería | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 16 Jan 2019 | FC Sochaux | Alavés | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 24 Jul 2018 | Alavés | FC Sochaux | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Alavés B | Alavés | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RB Leipzig U19 | Alavés B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RB Leipzig U17 | RB Leipzig U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | HSV Yth. | RB Leipzig U17 | €100k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.