Andriy Yarmolenko

The model rates Andriy Yarmolenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (1041 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1041 (39% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.86

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.49

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

52 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.25 (rank 30)

Team strength (Elo)

1324

Opponent strength

1176

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€282k – €1.0M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-82 Elo); relative output up 48% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -70% (IQR -83% to -45%).

• ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1041 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

18 (ATT)

Relative output kept

87%–104%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

94%

Confidence

Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.