Altay Bayındır
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Altay Bayındır's performance-implied value at EUR 7.7M-17.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-6.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 83.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 540 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1634
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -59% to +93%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 540 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1634 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1605 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1106 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 26 | 2340 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1278 | 1516 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 24 | 2142 | 63% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1238 | 1422 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 33 | 2970 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1274 | 1380 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1337 | 1330 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | GK | 17 | 1530 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1388 | 1283 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1337 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1371 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €2.8M | €28.0M | rose |
| Costel Pantilimon Premier League · 2014 | 27 | €2.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Anders Lindegaard Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €6.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jaume Doménech Laliga · 2018 | 28 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Neto Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Vicente Guaita Laliga · 2014 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mitchell Langerak Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sam Johnstone Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Fenerbahçe | Man Utd | €5.0M | €11.0M |
| 10 Jul 2019 | Ankaragücü | Fenerbahçe | €1.5M | €600k |
| 13 Feb 2015 | Ankaragücü Yth | Ankaragücü | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Aug 2013 | Bursa Yol Yth | Ankaragücü Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Oct 2012 | Arabayatagi Yth | Bursa Yol Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Oct 2011 | Bursaspor Yth | Arabayatagi Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.